Dan Trachtenberg is the hero of the hour as his new movie, Predator: Badlands, is ending the drought at the domestic box office. The movie topped Friday’s chart with a huge $15.6 million, putting it on course for a record opening in the $36 million to $38.5 million range (prerelease tracking had it opening to $25 million for the entire weekend).
It’s now guaranteed to score the top opening of the standalone Predator movies. Also, it has a shot at taking the crown from AVP: Alien vs. Predator, which debuted to $38.4 million in 2004, to become the top-grossing title in the sci-fi franchise, not adjusted for inflation.
The 20th Century and Disney pic is coming well ahead of expectations, thanks to glowing reviews and equally growing audience reaction. It is the only Predator film, including the two Alien mash-ups, to earn an A- CinemaScore, while its PostTrak exits are through the roof, including five out of five stars.
Badlands, which Trachtenberg co-conceived with his Prey writer Patrick Aison, blazes a new trail for the now nine-film franchise that began with John McTiernan’s 1987 classic, Predator. The franchise, from producer John Davis, landed at Disney following the Fox merger.
Trachtenberg has always surprised, beginning with 10 Cloverfield Lane (2016) and followed by 2021’s Prey and last June’s Predator: Killer of Killers, an animated anthology, both of which aired on Disney’s Hulu. In this case, he’s made a villainous Predator named Dek, played by Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi, into the protagonist who pairs with Elle Fanning’s Weyland-Yutani synthetic known as Thia. Dek has been discarded by his Yautja clan, and in a last-ditch effort to prove himself, he flies his brother Kwei’s ship to Genna, the most dangerous planet in the universe, to go on an unsanctioned hunt for its most mythical beast. That’s where he meets Thia.
Another surprise is the stealth-like performance of Regretting You, the adaptation of the Colleen Hoover book. Now in its third weekend, the female-skewing movie is suddenly making headlines for its staying power after finally pulling ahead of the hit horror pic Black Phone 2. Paramount is estimating the female property will fall a scant seven percent or less to $7.3 million to come in No. 2 — despite the entry of a number of new films — and finish the weekend with a domestic tally of $38.8 million. Marc Weinstock, Paramount’s recently departed worldwide president of marketing and distribution, was the driving force in convincing the prior regime at the studio to pick rights to distribute the pic in the U.S. and select markets on behalf of Constantin films. He’s also largely responsible for the marketing campaign.
Blumhouse’s Black Phone sequel is holding at No. 3 with an estimated $5.2 million in its fourth weekend for a domestic tally of $70 million.
Amazon MGM’s Sarah’s Oil — based on the true story of a black woman who became the richest woman in Texas because of oil — looks to come in No. 4 with a solid $4.4 million opening. While critics are mixed, the faith-tinged film is resonating deeply with audiences, as evidenced by its coveted A+ CinemaScore and stellar 97 percent ranking on Rotten Tomatoes.
A gaggle of awards players is opening, led by Sony Pictures Classics’ awards darling Nuremberg. The historical pic is expected to round out the top five with an estimated $3.7 million to $4 million. It likewise boasts strong praise from audiences, including an RT score of 96 percent.
Award contenders struggling in their box office debuts include Mubi’s Jennifer Lawrence-Robert Robert Pattinson vehicle Die My Love, which earned a rarely seen D+ CinemaScore from moviegoers, alongside a “rotten” audience ranking of 44 percent on Rotten Tomatoes (critics like it far more). It looks to come in No. 8 with roughly $2.5 million to $2.7 million.
The Sydney Sweeney-led Christy, another awards player starring a high-profile actress, may not crack the top 10. The good news: Similar to Lawrence in Die My Love, Critics have praised Sweeney’s performance, even if they have issues with the movie itself. Christy received a solid B+ CinemaScore and solid reviews. Based on a true story, Sweeney transformed her body to play Christy Martin, who helped legitimize women’s boxing. The biopic stars Ben Foster as the trainer who becomes her abusive husband.
Neon is opening acclaimed Swedish drama Sentimental Value — one of several awards contenders it has in the mix this year — in four theaters in New York and Los Angeles this weekend. Early returns suggest it could post an impressive per-location average of $50,000 or thereabouts, one of the best of the year. Joachim Trier directed the family drama, which stars Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning.
Numbers will be updated Sunday morning.
