Now that the winners of the 2026 British Academy Film and Television Arts Awards have been announced, film enthusiasts are eagerly awaiting the season’s biggest night – the Oscars. The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is set to take place on March 15, 2026, in Hollywood.
This year’s BAFTA results delivered a mix of expected victories and some shocking snubs, with the most eye-catching upset being Marty Supreme walking away empty-handed. This has prompted discussions about the Timothée Chalamet-starrer’s future at the Academy Awards.
MARTY SUPREME pic.twitter.com/0BubJ1hk8P
— Timothée Chalamet (@RealChalamet) November 10, 2025
Now, let’s examine how BAFTA winners have performed at the Academy Awards over the past five years (2021-2025). Studying this pattern will offer valuable insight into how closely the two voting bodies align across five major categories: Best Film, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Writing (Original Screenplay).
Best Film Winners: BAFTA vs Oscars (2021-2025)
2025
- BAFTA: Conclave | Oscar: Anora
- Result: Mismatch
2024
- BAFTA & Oscar: Oppenheimer
- Result: Match
2023
- BAFTA: All Quiet on the Western Front | Oscar: Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Result: Mismatch
2022
- BAFTA: The Power of the Dog | Oscar: CODA
- Result: Mismatch
2021
- BAFTA & Oscar: Nomadland
- Result: Match
What The Pattern Indicates:
The Best Film award matched on two occasions in the last five years, indicating that BAFTA is not a reliable predictor of Best Picture.
Best Director Winners: BAFTA vs Oscars (2021-2025)
2025
- BAFTA: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) | Oscar: Sean Baker (Anora)
- Result: Mismatch
2024
- BAFTA & Oscar: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
- Result: Match
2023
- BAFTA: Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) | Oscar: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Result: Mismatch
2022
- BAFTA & Oscar: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
- Result: Match
2021
- BAFTA & Oscar: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
- Result: Match
What The Pattern Indicates:
Best Director matched in three of the last five years, making BAFTA a decent indicator of Academy Awards glory.
Best Actor Winners: BAFTA vs Oscars (2021-2025)
2025
- BAFTA & Oscar: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
- Result: Match
2024
- BAFTA & Oscar: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
- Result: Match
2023
- BAFTA: Austin Butler (Elvis) | Oscar: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
- Result: Mismatch
2022
- BAFTA & Oscar: Will Smith (King Richard)
- Result: Match
2021
- BAFTA & Oscar: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
- Result: Match
What The Pattern Indicates:
With four matches in five years, Best Actor remains BAFTA’s strongest Oscar indicator.
Best Actress Winners: BAFTA vs Oscars (2021-2025)
2025
- BAFTA & Oscar: Mikey Madison (Anora)
- Result: Match
2024
- BAFTA & Oscar: Emma Stone (Poor Things)
- Result: Match
2023
- BAFTA: Cate Blanchett (TÁR) | Oscar: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Result: Mismatch
2022
- BAFTA: Joanna Scanlan (After Love) | Oscar: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
- Result: Mismatch
2021
- BAFTA & Oscar: Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
- Result: Match
What The Pattern Indicates:
Best Actress shows mixed results, matching on three occasions in the last five years.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay) Winners: BAFTA vs Oscars (2021-2025)
2025
- BAFTA: Jesse Eisenberg — A Real Pain | Oscar: Sean Baker — Anora
- Result: Mismatch
2024
- BAFTA & Oscar: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari – Anatomy of a Fall
- Result: Match
2023
- BAFTA: The Banshees of Inisherin | Oscar: Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Result: Mismatch
2022
- BAFTA: Licorice Pizza | Oscar: Belfast
- Result: Mismatch
2021
- BAFTA & Oscar: Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
- Result: Match
What The Pattern Indicates:
Writing remains an unpredictable category, matching only two entries in the last five years.
Summary: BAFTA to Oscar Conversion Rate (2021-2025):
- Best Film: 2/5 matches (40%)
- Best Director: 3/5 matches (60%)
- Best Actor: 4/5 matches (80%)
- Best Actress: 3/5 matches (60%)
- Best Writing: 2/5 matches (40%)
Overall Conversion: 14/25 matches (56%)
Conclusion
Based on the five-year trend, BAFTA’s track record as an Oscar predictor remains decent. But there is no need to treat it as a prophecy as well.
The overlap is strongest in the acting races, particularly in the Best Actor category (80%). However, Best Film and Best Writing continue to indicate frequent mismatches, suggesting how Academy voters think differently from BAFTA voters.
Jessie Buckley takes home the BAFTA for Leading Actress in Hamnet✨ #EEBAFTAs pic.twitter.com/v9JNIxKhb3
— BAFTA (@BAFTA) February 22, 2026
With Robert Aramayo not nominated in the Best Actor race, our gut feeling is that Timothée Chalamet is now the strongest contender to lift his first Best Actor Oscar in 2026.
Moreover, since the Best Director and Best Actress categories have also shown relatively strong alignment in recent years, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) could have a solid shot at winning an Oscar. For now, it remains a waiting game.
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