There was no shying away from uncomfortable truths and hotly debated issues as the Locarno Pro industry program kicked off on a similarly hot Thursday in the Swiss lakeside town.
The 15th edition of the industry strand, taking place in parallel with the 79th edition of the Locarno Film Festival, runs Aug. 6-11.
The 2026 version of the annual StepIn: Out of the Box introduction session lived up to its billing as a thought-provoking kick-off event, as film industry data analyst Stephen Follows raised eyebrows with various data points and hard truths in a presentation entitled “Fear, Lies, and the Illusion of Control.”
The surprise, or shock, of the audience was audible when Follows unveiled new data he has compiled on how many of this century’s top-grossing films have had a “nepo baby creative.” He detailed that he had looked at the top 100 films for the 2000-2025 period and calculated when a director, writer, or one of the top three actors of a film had at least one family member already working in the industry. Want to take a guess at what he found?
If your guess is 70 percent, you are right! If you are shocked, know that the analyst emphasized that access plays a key role here. “It’s not always nepotism in a terrible way,” he explained. “It might be that they grew up around the industry. … I’m not saying they have no merit.”
Family ties get you into a good industry spot younger, with a first feature at age 33, rather than 35, and up the ladder faster – eight years to a top film, instead of 10, Follows also highlighted other findings. And people with family connections in the sector have more second features and more films per career.
“But the films themselves are no bigger and no better,” he shared, citing the “same” box office and ratings. All in all, access via your family has one key benefit, the expert mentioned as a key takeaway: “Family ties get you in and keep you in the game.”
Meanwhile, Follows’ research also shows that an experienced producer can make all the difference for a first-time director, even though that correlation disappears after the first film. Three out of four directors don’t make a second feature, at least not within five years of their first, he cited key data. Among the ones that do, however, “one of the biggest predictors” is whether they have worked with an experienced producer on their first, he also highlighted. And he has found that “even a brilliant debut loses to an ordinary one with a better producer.”
If you wonder about the impact of education decisions, Follows also emphasized that “film school is really an accelerator ramp.” After all, films directed by film school graduates outgross the rest, while quality ratings are identical. “Film school gets you in younger, and more film school debutants reach the top 100” film list, he concluded.
Another chart that Follows showed on Thursday that may not have surprised the crowd but was still not happy news focused on the percentage of indie films that generate a profit. Data up until 2018 shows that number at 3.4 percent. “Economics have changed a bit,” but the direction of travel is still the same, and small changes make no real difference, the analyst shared. How many of the 10 percent of indie movies that made it into cinemas were profitable? Around 33 percent. In comparison, 51 percent of studio films made a profit, he noted.
Follows emphasized that this all has to do with a phenomenon people knew about, but may not always have in mind: “power laws.” He explained what that means this way: “A small number gets really all of the riches.”
One key theme that Follows emphasized repeatedly on Thursday was that the film business doesn’t allow you much control, even if many people will tell you otherwise. “The business of film is unpredictable, unknowable and unfair,” he summarized.
In a part of his presentation that had the audience in stitches, Follows shared that among the things that provide an “illusion of control” are the industry’s focus on stars, test screenings, franchises, formulas, algorithms or other factors designed to limit risk. “Maybe these things move the dial a bit,” but they don’t fundamentally change the sector’s underlying unpredictability. To people subscribing to various services promises risk-free salvation, Follows suggested: “It’s a little bit like you have a house in an area that has earthquakes, tornadoes and Godzilla and they are selling you little bars to go on the window and go, ‘Look, we’ve made your house safer.’ This is not dealing with the fundamental risk.”
In a summary at the end of his presentation, he doubled down on that, emphasizing: “You are not in control of almost anything.” His suggestion for finding success in the industry: concentrate on what you can control. Among key recommendations to focus on here are: make people want to work with you;
make a truly original film; be a person with taste or a perspective – because “the algorithms are not great. Fundamentally, curation is much more important;” recognize that the unknown is commonplace and rewarding; and enjoy the journey.
Markus Duffner, director of Locarno Pro in his sixth year, recently told THR that he was expecting around 2,000 accredited industry guests to attend this year, with around three-quarters of those coming from Europe. Among the attendees are an estimated 800 producers, 350 buyers, about 100 sales agents and 300 film festival programmers.
