The first film in Disney’s Moana franchise was released in 2016. In addition to receiving a stellar 95% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, the animated musical adventure delivered an impressive box office performance. The John Musker and Ron Clements-directed feature grossed $643.3 million on a $175 million budget, according to Box Office Mojo. On the other hand, its sequel, Moana 2, earned $1.059 billion globally (around 65% more than its predecessor), despite receiving a relatively lower 61% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes.
So far, the combined worldwide gross of the first two Moana films is around $1.702 billion. Now, fans are eagerly waiting for the arrival of the live-action Moana adaptation starring Dwayne Johnson and Catherine Laga’aia. The film is set to hit theaters on July 10, 2026. While it remains to be seen if the 2026 remake can outgross its predecessors, let’s take a look at the three major challenges that could affect its theatrical profit.
Release Timing
As mentioned earlier, Moana will be released on July 10, 2026. This means it would have to compete with another kid-friendly and family-oriented theatrical release, Minions & Monsters, which will hit theaters on July 1. Although Evil Dead Burn has a different target audience, it is being released on the same day as Moana (July 10).
Then, on July 17, one week after Moana’s release, Christopher Nolan’s highly anticipated fantasy action film, The Odyssey, will hit the big screen. Two weeks later, Tom Holland’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day will arrive in theaters.
So, as you can see, July is a packed month for major Hollywood releases, and the fierce competition could affect the theatrical profitability of the live-action Moana.
Release Gap & Franchise Saturation
The first Moana film was released in 2016, followed by its sequel, which came out in 2024. So, the last time audiences experienced the world of Moana and Maui was just two years ago. The short gap between the release of the second film and the live-action adaptation could contribute to franchise saturation.
That said, the 2025 live-action remake of How to Train Your Dragon overcame similar concerns and turned out to be a box office success. It remains to be seen whether Moana can follow a similar path.
Massive Budget
Although Moana’s official budget has not been revealed yet, reports suggest that the Dwayne Johnson starrer cost $200 million+ to produce. Based on the reported $200 million budget figure and using the commonly cited 2.5x multiplier rule, Moana would need to earn $500 million to break even at the box office. In comparison, the first Moana film was made on a $175 million budget, according to Box Office Mojo, and the sequel was made on a $150 million budget, according to Box Office Mojo.
MOANA live-action remake, starring Dwayne Johnson, has had a terrible start in pre-sales.
Costing $200M+, it might be a surprising bomb this summer. Its release date, too close to TOY STORY and MINIONS, isn’t doing it any favors. pic.twitter.com/8G9HobkQ67
— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOffice) June 11, 2026
Considering the box office track record of the last two Moana films, it seems likely that the live-action remake will comfortably surpass the $500 million worldwide mark. Having said that, its theatrical profitability could still be affected because of its hefty $200 million price tag.
What’s Moana All About?
The film follows the adventures of Moana (Catherine Laga’aia), the daughter of village chief Tui. She leaves her home island for the first time and travels with the legendary demigod Maui (Dwayne Johnson) to bring back prosperity to her people.
Moana Trailer
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