On Nov. 13, TKO heralded what it termed a “first-of-its-kind sports partnership” with Polymarket, the controversial crypto-powered platform that treats news events as tradable assets. This deal promises to place betting center stage — in the words of CEO Ari Emanuel, “transforming passive viewership into active participation” — by integrating a real-time “prediction scoreboard” into the UFC’s octagon experience during broadcasts on Paramount’s streamer. (In August, the studio revealed a $7.7 billion rights pact.)
The timing wasn’t optimal. On Nov. 4, UFC boss Dana White confirmed an FBI investigation into the alleged fixing at a recent match after multiple online sportsbooks refunded bets following a fighter’s suspicious loss. He explained he’d spoken with the bureau’s director, Kash Patel, a friend from Las Vegas who previously suggested he’d like the UFC to partner in training his agents. Soon after, the issue magnified as reports emerged of other fighters having been approached to throw bouts, federal authorities having flagged a significant number of events and a wide-ranging FBI probe now apparently underway to explore suspicious betting and manipulated outcomes. White, appearing on TMZ Sports, derided this all as “total bullshit.”
Mark Shapiro, president and COO of UFC’s parent company TKO, tells The Hollywood Reporter that “we’re aware of investigations into only two isolated incidents over the span of three years,” adding that UFC hosts nearly 500 fights annually and “works with an independent betting integrity service, IC360, to monitor wagering activity on every UFC event, and took immediate action in both instances.” The UFC’s fight-fixing scandal has emerged as the NBA and MLB have recently faced their own crises in which players have been indicted in purported illegal sports-betting schemes. Yet mixed martial arts events are thought to be much more vulnerable to corruption.
Among the reasons: A single participant can determine the outcome of a match; most fighters earn low pay, which means that a bet is often worth more than a purse; and there’s a lack of institutional guardrails, from a union to a standardized injury reporting process. Legal exposure aside, some observers think betting problems are a serious brand danger for the UFC, a promotional organization accomplished in skyrocketing MMA’s popularity. “The possibility in sport of predetermined outcomes is an existential threat,” says American University’s N. Jeremi Duru, an expert in sports law. “If serious doubt is sown about true competition, then it’s no longer even sport. It may be something else — art, theater, histrionics — and there might be an audience for extraordinary athletic feats that are predetermined. But that’s a different audience than for competitive sport.”
Attorney Jeremy Evans, who practices at the nexus of athletics and entertainment, agrees: “The big question becomes, ‘Is this scripted?’”
Smith College economics professor Andrew Zimbalist, who’s long consulted for players associations and leagues — including in a class-action lawsuit that MMA fighters won against the UFC for anti-competitive practices — believes that White, a classic showman, has perhaps safeguarded his organization by promoting what happens in the octagon as, above all, pure entertainment. For many fans, that’s likely enough. “There’s always economic viability for him in being what the WWE is,” Zimabalist says, referring to the staged wrestling company, another TKO division.
Enter Polymarket. The futures exchange, now valued at $9 billion, has been a lightning rod. It had operated in a legal gray zone until acquiring necessary federal licensing after President Trump was reelected. (Donald Trump Jr. is a key investor.) Critics contend that incentives-sensitive, real-world outcomes — including for disease outbreaks and political violence — risk being warped by inside information. The danger for sports is that competition can be reduced to a mere MacGuffin for betting.
Shapiro dismisses any concern, noting that UFC has maintained successful compliance protections for five years in its partnership with sports betting firm DraftKings. He insists that Polymarket’s utility is “as an information and fan engagement tool — a way to visualize what fans believe will happen in real time. No different from CNN or CNBC integrating Polymarket odds into their reporting on New York’s recent mayoral race, congressional election coverage or the selection of Pope Leo XIV.”
This story appeared in the Dec. 3 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.
