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    2026 Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Latest Picks

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    A NOTE FROM SCOTT As October winds to a close, the number of awards hopefuls that haven’t yet screened for pundits — or that have screened, but for which coverage remains under embargo — has dwindled to just three: Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century), Ella McCay (20th Century) and Wicked: For Good (Universal).

    Since our last update, Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (A24) screened for industry insiders on Oct. 8, with Timothée Chalamet’s leading performance popping above all else. AFI Fest (Oct. 22-26) hosted the world premieres of Nuremberg (Sony Classics), with Russell Crowe and Rami Malek in attendance, and Song Sung Blue (Focus), with Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson on hand. Both were well received at the TCL Chinese Theater, but face more of an uphill climb with critics.

    AFI Fest also was the site of the Hollywood premieres of, among others, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century), which was preceded by a performance by The Boss himself; Jay Kelly (Netflix), with George Clooney and Adam Sandler; Christy (Black Bear), attended by Sydney Sweeney and the former boxer she portrays, Christy Martin; Netflix sleeper Train Dreams (Netflix); Bradley Cooper’s Will Arnett showcase Is This Thing On? (Searchlight); Dead Man’s Wire (Row K); Rental Family (Searchlight); The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight); and The Chronology of Water (The Forge).

    The season of regional film festivals has gotten underway with the fests in Newport Beach (Oct. 16-23), where I recorded live podcasts with Frankenstein (Netflix) supporting actor Jacob Elordi and Wake Up Dead Man (Netflix) writer/director Rian Johnson, which will post soon; Middleburg (Oct. 16-19), which, regrettably, I was unable to attend this year, but at which Hamnet (Focus) and Rental Family tied for the audience award; Virginia (Oct. 22-26), where I recorded a live podcast with Jay Kelly composer Nicholas Britell, which will post soon; and SCAD Savannah (Oct. 25-Nov. 1), where I will be sitting down with the documentarians between 10 of the year’s top documentary features for the 12th annual Docs to Watch Panel (join us!). Next up: Miami GEMS (Oct. 29-Nov. 5), where I will be recording a live podcast with Dead Man’s Wire director Gus Van Sant (join us!).

    At the box office this past weekend, Scott Cooper’s Springsteen, which cost $55 million and features strong performances by Jeremy Allen White, Jeremy Strong and Odessa Young, opened wide (nearly 3500 theaters) and performed disappointingly, grossing $9.1 million domestically and $7 million internationally. Conversely, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Bugonia (Focus), led by Jesse Plemons and Emma Stone, opened in just 17 locations — en route to a nationwide expansion next weekend — and crushed, with a per-theater-average of $40,588, one of the highest of the year.

    Meanwhile, Bill Condon’s adaptation of the Broadway musical Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside), which began rolling out three weekends ago in more than 1300 theaters, continues to struggle terribly — it has grossed just $1.6 million against a budget that was reportedly $50 million. Jennifer Lopez gives an impressive turn in the film, in the part for which the late Chita Rivera won a Tony, but her awards prospects certainly won’t be helped by the film bombing.

    Something to keep an eye on: Guillermo del Toro’s aforementioned Frankenstein, which got off to a shaky start in Venice and Telluride, has been picking up steam at festival and industry screenings, while also playing theatrically in major markets since Oct. 17 en route to its Nov. 7 debut on Netflix. On Oct. 25, following the film’s official screening for LA-based Academy members, del Toro was greeted with a standing ovation when introduced at the Q&A.

    PLEASE REMEMBER: Scott’s forecasts do not necessarily reflect his personal preferences. His aim is not to advocate for what he thinks the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. He arrives at his projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats.



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